“Guessing launch day iPhone sales,” writes Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner in a note to clients issued Friday, ‘has become something of a national sport, a bit like guessing whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow.” But that doesn’t stop him from playing the game. Reiner’s guess: 1.5 million, one and a half as many iPhones as Apple (AAPL) sold in three days in 2009 and 2008. – from Fortune