Electric cars, hybrids, and other gas-sipping or gas-free cars may help the United States cut its greenhouse emissions from driving by a total of 80 percent by 2050, according to a scientific study released Monday.
That could lead to a more than 10 percent cut in overall US pollution into the atmosphere, with consumer-driven cars and small trucks currently responsible for 17 percent of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions, said the study.
Sticker shock could turn off many consumers, with such vehicles costing several thousand dollars more than today’s prices. Still, the long-term benefits would outweigh the early costs, said the report by the National Academy of Sciences.
The study envisions cars and small trucks of the future that drive a stunning 100 miles per gallon (42.5 kilometers per liter), way over the 25 miles per gallon that they did on average in 2005.
More efficient vehicle technologies — like lighter, more aerodynamic designs — could be combined with alternative power sources such as biofuel, electricity or hydrogen, reducing petroleum use in 2050 by 80 percent as well, it said.
There is no single solution in view, but fuels under consideration include corn-grain ethanol and biodiesel, which are already being produced in commercial quantities. Natural gas was ruled out because its greenhouse gas emissions were too high.
The study also pointed to “much greater potential” in fuel from wood waste, wheat straw and switchgrass, known as biofuel from lignocellulosic biomass.
“This ‘drop-in’ fuel is designed to be a direct replacement for gasoline and could lead to large reductions in both petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions,” it said.
The study examined hybrid electric, plug-in electric and battery electric vehicles already on the market including the Toyota Prius and Chevrolet Volt, as well as hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles like the Mercedes F-Cell, scheduled for market release in 2014.
High up-front vehicle prices would be expected to endure for at least a decade, even though it would cost less to fuel up and drive greener cars, it said.
Still, the study said the benefit to society in terms of energy cost savings, better vehicles, reduced petroleum use and lower greenhouse gas emissions would be “many times larger than the projected costs.”
The goals set out will be “difficult but not impossible to meet,” as long as they are guided by strong national policies, said the study sponsored by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
